March 12, 2010 11:32 AM ET
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Exploiting Misinformation (Opportunistic)
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Technical swing (Market timing)
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Asset Allocation (Growth)
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International asset allocation (Macro)
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Long-Term Growth (Opportunistic)
Douglas Estadt
Strategy Management Access
Category Specialist knowledge
External Website Link
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38 Subscribers
Fees 1.50% of invested assets p.a. Subscription Min $5,000.00*
Owns a webcasting business where he hears thousands of CEO management stories each year, as they pitch to financial analysts. Given his access to these pitches he listens for powerful growth stories and takes a view on whether these are credible, and not yet fully valued in by the market. Relatively short term model that buys credible growth stories and waits for the news to be priced in.
Opportunistic selection of small to mid cap stocks based on an unrecognised growth or undervaluation story. Following company investor presentations, he identifies situations where the management indicates the company has a new growth story or is overlooked in comparison to its peers.
Management presentations coupled with basic fundamental and trading data surrounding the company. He runs a technology company that webcasts thousands of CEO presentations at investor conferences throughout the year and consequently listens to hundreds of presentations per week by CEOs of small to mid-cap public companies. While each of these presentations are publicly available and he has no...
[more +]He considers approximately five real opportunities per week and his investment level is opportunistically based on his confidence in the story and the fundamentals of the company. Initially invests around 10% in each opportunity, may purchase more if he strongly believes the story and the stock depreciates.
Time horizon is dependent on the story and valuation or volatility. In a small cap stock with an exciting fundamental growth story he may wait as long as 6 months to capture value. Or in a stock that has been overlooked in comparison to its peers but has the same fundamental drivers, he may realise his gain in a few days.
A portion of his investment portfolio is in more macro international themes that he captures with ETFs.
Investment Report
In his "The Black Swan" Taleb called it "losing the noise" and 2009 was the year I did that by cutting off all financial news/information from any source which was not transparent with their investments/trades. I have earned my returns for the year by only seeing/hearing financial info from people/sources who show me what they are doing with their money.
When I have taken a position based on a...
January 2010
Personal Background
- Owns two Wall St technology companies
- Webcasts thousands of CEO conferences
- Has daily video stock update show on MSN
Experience on Covestor.com‡
Douglas Estadt's Covestor.com Profile
- Overperformed S&P 500 for 22 of their 34 months on Covestor.com#
- Return Since Inception: 408.94% (May 2007)
- Last 3 Months Return: 34.88% (S&P 500 0.81%)
- Annualized Return: 79.21%
- Sharpe Ratio: 1.37 (S&P 500 -0.08)
- Maximum Drawdown: -47.28% (S&P 500 -56.78%)
Performance
| Inception April 10, 2009 | Model Manager | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Return Since Inception (%) | 251.49 | 34.29 |
| Annualized Return (%) | 293.37 | 37.88 |
| Month to Date Return (%) | 13.18 | 4.14 |
| Calendar 3 Month Return (%) | 26.88 | (0.39) |
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.56 | 1.98 |
Monthly Performance (%)
| Month | Return | S&P500 | Outperformance | Risk | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 18.80 | 2.85 | 15.95 |
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| Jan | (13.50) | (3.70) | (9.81) |
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| Dec | 27.86 | 1.78 | 26.08 |
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| Nov | 18.90 | 5.74 | 13.16 |
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| Oct | (10.27) | (1.98) | (8.29) |
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| Sep | 35.97 | 3.57 | 32.40 |
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| Aug | (13.26) | 3.36 | (16.61) |
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| Jul | 4.78 | 7.41 | (2.63) |
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| Jun | (2.43) | 0.02 | (2.45) |
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| May | 163.89 | 5.31 | 158.59 |
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The performance of the model manager's account has been calculated by CVIM on a daily time-weighted basis including cash and broker commissions. These returns do not reflect any CVIM suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of CVIM fees. Therefore, they do not represent the performance of the CVIM model available for subscription. Benchmark returns have been calculated by CVIM using a time-weighted calculation of daily valuations and do not include cash or transaction costs. Please see the additional disclosures below.
Top Holdings
| Symbol | Security | Exchange | Allocation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGP | GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES | NYSE | 68.84 |
| VVUS | Vivus, Inc. | NASDAQ | 20.69 |
| SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 | NYSE | 5.04 |
| YYIN | Yayi Intl Inc | OTC | 2.93 |
| ETFC | E*Trade Financial Corporation | NYSE | 2.65 |
Total Holdings 13
Data displayed is as of market close: March 11, 2010
Recent Transactions
| Symbol | Security | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 | Buy | $31.69 |
| QKLS | QKL Stores, Inc. | Buy | $6.46 |
| SOKF | Soko Fitness & Spa Group Inc | Sell | $4.00 |
| CXDC | China XD Plastics Company Ltd. | Buy | $6.67 |
| APPY | AspenBio Pharma Inc. | Buy | $2.20 |
Data displayed is as of market close: March 11, 2010
* The Subscription Minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by CVIM, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.
‡ Covestor.com performance data has been calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis of the equity positions of the account and is exclusive of any commissions and cash in the portfolio. The member's performance on Covestor.com, based on a separate account, may not reflect the strategy employed to manage the model available for subscription on CVIM. Please see additional disclosures below.
# Since the model manager's inception in Covestor.com
It should not be assumed that any information discussed herein will prove to be profitable or that decisions in the future will be profitable or provide similar results. The information set forth herein is not a substitution for personalized investment advice, and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security or to subscribe to a particular model.
While Covestor does provide limited investment advice to its clients, the content herein is provided as general and impersonalized investment information and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Covestor does not guarantee or certify the quality, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any content contained herein or on the Covestor.com website. Please take appropriate professional advice in any investment decisions.
External Website Link
By clicking the link you are leaving Covestor's CV.IM web site. Covestor does not monitor third party web sites, makes no representations as to the accuracy or suitability of any information to be found on such sites and takes no responsibility for such sites. The link is provided for convenience purposes only. Should such a website contain inappropriate content please report it to Client Services.