March 12, 2010 6:48 PM ET

Focus

Status

Private Investor

Asset class

US ETFs and large cap equities only

Cap bias

Large-cap equities

Position type

Long and short

Approach

Market Timing

Trade frequency

31+ trades per month

Holding period

Short term

Diversification

5 to 10 holdings

Michael Arold

Michael Arold

Strategy Technical swing

Category Market timing

Average trade replication time 2 minutes

4,183 Views

3 Subscribers


Model risk score 4

To subscribe login or open a client account

Fees 1.50% of invested assets p.a. Subscription Min $5,000.00*


Investment Strategy

Using multiple technical indicators, surveys the movements in the market and the sectors and stocks that are leading the way. Once interesting sectors or companies are identified takes a discretionary view, based on fundamentals, of likely moves in the opposite direction (i.e. have these been oversold or overbought). Short term model looking to capture profits in short term price swings.

Top down approach to market, considers what direction the market is moving and what sectors are leading that move, and within the sector what stocks. He will identify key metrics such as the price of the US dollar, the VIX, price of Gold or the Baltic Dry Index in order to develop a "market theme".  Takes a discretionary approach rather than using a black box programmatic system.  He occasionally... [more +]

Monitors all technical indicators and looks at multiple sources of data for sentiment direction including analyst recommendations, news, discussions, multiple web sites he monitors. These websites include Investor's Business Daily, StockTwits, AbnormalReturns and BespokeInvestmentGroup.  Likes to use extreme public predications as contrary indicator.

Final position decisions are made from a discretionary viewpoint blending in leading technical indicators with the macro perspective, company fundamentals if appropriate, and short term catalyst events. Maintains an active risk management model with no position putting more than 1% of the capital at risk, where the capital at risk is calculated from the volatility and price of the stock. Tries to... [more +]

Maintains soft stops on positions that he prefers to manually monitor. He will hold his positions 2 days to 2 months with a goal of maintaining a 60 % success ratio and 50% higher profit on successful positions than loss on unprofitably trades.

As he does not consider fundamental financial value, he does not trade a stock within its period of earnings results as he is at a relative disadvantage to those with deep individual understanding of the company. Doesn't like stocks that can be subject to external events that may have a sudden and dramatic effect on the company, so tends to avoid biotech and micro-cap stocks.

Investment Report

Four factors are driving my trading decisions: short term technical setups of individual stocks or ETFs, fundamental characteristics, relative strength of the underlying sector and market sentiment. The later describes the psychological state of an index by observing how markets react to positive or negative news.

In February, the market demonstrated various signs of robustness by acting strong on...

March 2010

Personal Background

  • German national, lived in US for last 5 years - recently moved back to Germany with American wife
  • Strong engineering background, MA in Engineering at University of Stuttgart

Experience on Covestor.com

Michael Arold's Covestor.com Profile

  • Overperformed S&P 500 for 19 of their 33 months on Covestor.com#
  • Return Since Inception: 198.43% (June 2007)
  • Last 3 Months Return: 6.33% (S&P 500 0.81%)
  • Annualized Return: 49.16%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 1.60 (S&P 500 -0.08)
  • Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% (S&P 500 -56.78%)

Performance

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S&P500
Manager
Custom SI 1Y YTD 3M 1M
Inception March 23, 2009 Model Manager S&P 500
Return Since Inception (%) 25.44 39.78
Annualized Return (%) 26.41 41.38
Month to Date Return (%) 6.37 4.14
Calendar 3 Month Return (%) 3.42 (0.39)
Sharpe Ratio 1.23 2.04

Monthly Performance (%)

Month Return S&P500 Outperformance Risk Performance
Feb (0.95) 2.85 (3.80)
Jan 2.91 (3.70) 6.60
Dec 1.44 1.78 (0.34)
Nov (0.02) 5.74 (5.76)
Oct (2.65) (1.98) (0.67)
Sep (0.44) 3.57 (4.02)
Aug (0.21) 3.36 (3.56)
Jul 8.66 7.41 1.25
Jun (4.73) 0.02 (4.75)
May 2.02 5.31 (3.29)

The performance of the model manager's account has been calculated by CVIM on a daily time-weighted basis including cash and broker commissions. These returns do not reflect any CVIM suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of CVIM fees. Therefore, they do not represent the performance of the CVIM model available for subscription. Benchmark returns have been calculated by CVIM using a time-weighted calculation of daily valuations and do not include cash or transaction costs. Please see the additional disclosures below.

Top Holdings

Symbol Security Exchange Allocation (%)
Cash n/a n/a 44.09
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 NYSE (17.13)
AAPL APPLE INC NASDAQ 12.24
RIMM Research in Motion Limited NASDAQ 10.26
PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA COM NYSE 10.09

Total Holdings  12

Data displayed is as of market close: March 11, 2010

Recent Transactions

Symbol Security Type Price
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 Sell Short $31.79
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 Sell $31.96
LEN LENNAR CORP-CL A Buy $16.74
FXP UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua 25 Proshares Buy $8.40
MELI Mercadolibre Inc. Sell $46.82

Data displayed is as of market close: March 11, 2010



* The Subscription Minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by CVIM, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

Covestor.com performance data has been calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis of the equity positions of the account and is exclusive of any commissions and cash in the portfolio. The member's performance on Covestor.com, based on a separate account, may not reflect the strategy employed to manage the model available for subscription on CVIM. Please see additional disclosures below.

# Since the model manager's inception in Covestor.com

It should not be assumed that any information discussed herein will prove to be profitable or that decisions in the future will be profitable or provide similar results. The information set forth herein is not a substitution for personalized investment advice, and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security or to subscribe to a particular model.

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