March 10, 2010 9:19 AM ET
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Other Models
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Financial Services Specific (Sector Focus)
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Contra hype (Market timing)
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Exploiting Misinformation (Opportunistic)
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Long-Term, Conservative (Value)
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Asset Allocation (Growth)
Richard Moore
Strategy Market comparables
Category Value
Average trade replication time 2 minutes
2,913 Views
5 Subscribers
Fees 1.50% of invested assets p.a. Subscription Min $5,000.00*
Using long refined financial models, screens the market for companies based on their relative stock price movement and valuations over time. From a shortlist of potential investments, looks deep into their financial forecasts to assess their fundamental prospects for earnings growth, looking for hidden value. Long only buy and hold model.
Screens broad US market with models he has refined over many years with 2 main indicators to expose stocks to research. Valuation screen: uses relative and adjusted EBITDA multiples compared to their industry peers. Momentum screen: looks at relative price performance over the time periods in 3 month, 6 month and 12 month cycles, to restrict to those that the market indicates are outperforming... [more +]
Looks at the primary fundamentals of the prospects, uses 10k and 10q s to adjust the EBITDA and refine list and then examines the fundamentals of the company. He is particularly concerned with earnings growth and quality of earnings. He does not consider fallen angels
Monitors proprietary sentiment indicators to drive asset allocation decisions of cash. Buys no more than 3% of portfolio in any individual name, but that may rise to a higher percentage with price appreciation. Finally looks at the diversification within his portfolio and how this particular opportunity fits within it.
Monitors positions until he believes they are fairly valued relatively according to his models, then sells 50% and 50% more if rises to 10% higher than the median on relative EBITDA basis. Exits when approximately 20% down or if earnings or projected earnings change negatively to his model. Holds positions for specific predetermined number of months then if the company is not still an opportunity... [more +]
In this market he has had to relax his rules on earnings growth to a more relative and less absolute position.
Investment Report
The stock market remains influenced by conflicting forces. The upward momentum that began about a year ago is still in place. Corrections have been small and short-lived. However, my sentiment indicators, while improving somewhat, continue to be extremely negative for stock prices. Basically, small investors and speculators have become convinced that we are in a new bull market and are buying...
March 2010
Personal Background
- Retired and self managing his entire retirement account on Covestor full time
- 40 years experience working with banks, mutual funds and IAs, CFA and MBA in finance
- On Marketocracy where ranks in top 50 (of their claimed 50/70k members)
Experience on Covestor.com‡
Richard Moore's Covestor.com Profile
- Overperformed S&P 500 for 22 of their 33 months on Covestor.com#
- Return Since Inception: 46.28% (June 2007)
- Last 3 Months Return: -1.06% (S&P 500 0.81%)
- Annualized Return: 15.14%
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.58 (S&P 500 -0.09)
- Maximum Drawdown: -29.79% (S&P 500 -56.78%)
Performance
| Inception March 30, 2009 | Model Manager | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Return Since Inception (%) | 18.75 | 44.81 |
| Annualized Return (%) | 20.01 | 48.12 |
| Month to Date Return (%) | 1.21 | 3.26 |
| Calendar 3 Month Return (%) | 0.08 | (0.39) |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.08 | 2.43 |
Monthly Performance (%)
| Month | Return | S&P500 | Outperformance | Risk | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | (0.04) | 2.85 | (2.89) |
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| Jan | (2.54) | (3.70) | 1.16 |
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| Dec | 3.57 | 1.78 | 1.79 |
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| Nov | 1.20 | 5.74 | (4.53) |
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| Oct | (2.20) | (1.98) | (0.22) |
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| Sep | 3.65 | 3.57 | 0.08 |
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| Aug | 0.30 | 3.36 | (3.06) |
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| Jul | 3.51 | 7.41 | (3.91) |
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| Jun | 1.77 | 0.02 | 1.75 |
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| May | 2.69 | 5.31 | (2.62) |
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The performance of the model manager's account has been calculated by CVIM on a daily time-weighted basis including cash and broker commissions. These returns do not reflect any CVIM suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of CVIM fees. Therefore, they do not represent the performance of the CVIM model available for subscription. Benchmark returns have been calculated by CVIM using a time-weighted calculation of daily valuations and do not include cash or transaction costs. Please see the additional disclosures below.
Top Holdings
| Symbol | Security | Exchange | Allocation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | n/a | n/a | 59.70 |
| BIL | SPDR SPDR LEHMAN 1-3 MONTH T-BILL | AMEX | 7.20 |
| AMP | AMERIPRISE FINL ICN COM | NYSE | 3.70 |
| PRX | PAR PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES COM | NYSE | 3.55 |
| CNU | CONTINUCARE CORPORATION COM | AMEX | 3.50 |
Total Holdings 12
Data displayed is as of market close: March 09, 2010
Recent Transactions
| Symbol | Security | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| WHR | WHIRLPOOL CORP COM | Buy | $83.02 |
| VSEC | VSE CORP COM | Buy | $46.50 |
| CNU | CONTINUCARE CORPORATION COM | Buy | $4.06 |
| NXG | Northgate Minerals Corporation | Sell | $2.52 |
| GIII | G-III Apparel Group, LTD. | Sell | $17.55 |
Data displayed is as of market close: March 09, 2010
* The Subscription Minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by CVIM, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.
‡ Covestor.com performance data has been calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis of the equity positions of the account and is exclusive of any commissions and cash in the portfolio. The member's performance on Covestor.com, based on a separate account, may not reflect the strategy employed to manage the model available for subscription on CVIM. Please see additional disclosures below.
# Since the model manager's inception in Covestor.com
It should not be assumed that any information discussed herein will prove to be profitable or that decisions in the future will be profitable or provide similar results. The information set forth herein is not a substitution for personalized investment advice, and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security or to subscribe to a particular model.
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