Focused on around one hundred and fifty stocks, looks deep into their financial statements and restates what these might look like without any creative accounting. Using his own models of these companies projected growth; he comes up with a price point where they should be in a perfect world and trades around that price. Deep analysis model, looking to capture value from market inefficiency.

Believes that over next 10 years the broad market will swing within a limited range and not substantially appreciate so the buy and hold diversified model will be ineffective. Unlikely to see PE expansion with short term interest rate low, and believes that returns will be made by active management and trading. Has a limited basket of 150 stocks that he invests within. Grown from an original group... [more +]

Believes that over next 10 years the broad market will swing within a limited range and not substantially appreciate so the buy and hold diversified model will be ineffective. Unlikely to see PE expansion with short term interest rate low, and believes that returns will be made by active management and trading. Has a limited basket of 150 stocks that he invests within. Grown from an original group of 40/50 stocks 10 years ago, he maintains deep multi-year financial models on all of them. Opportunistically adds new names to the list, but can’t foresee it growing to over 200 companies. [less -]

Conducts classic, heavy lifting accounting and financial analysis. As 70 % + of his universe are large cap stocks and given they can’t change their business model rapidly, he relies mostly on deep analysis of the 10K and notes, and then monitors macro factors and how that affects the projected outlook and his model. Adjusts balance sheets for off balance sheet liabilities, restates the income... [more +]

Conducts classic, heavy lifting accounting and financial analysis. As 70 % + of his universe are large cap stocks and given they can’t change their business model rapidly, he relies mostly on deep analysis of the 10K and notes, and then monitors macro factors and how that affects the projected outlook and his model. Adjusts balance sheets for off balance sheet liabilities, restates the income statements to reflect continuing operations and constructs 5-10 year projections for each company. Has a multi factor valuation approach of 7-10 metrics to estimate fair intrinsic value. [less -]

Buys at a 20-30% discount to his fair value to reflect a margin of error. Buys single positions if the price is very compelling but will often pair up positions to manage market or sector risk or capture a macro trend. Individual positions are typically around 3% of the portfolio size. Rarely takes shorts outside of a paired position, as he believes the market can ignore your valuation reasoning... [more +]

Buys at a 20-30% discount to his fair value to reflect a margin of error. Buys single positions if the price is very compelling but will often pair up positions to manage market or sector risk or capture a macro trend. Individual positions are typically around 3% of the portfolio size. Rarely takes shorts outside of a paired position, as he believes the market can ignore your valuation reasoning forever. [less -]

Targets 10-15% return on positions or sells when the stock reaches his intrinsic fair value. Holding periods have been getting shorter with increased volatility in the market and once he has achieved his target P&L returns he usually finds there are more attractive alternative opportunities for the capital use.

A portion of his investment portfolio is in more macro themes that he captures with ETFs.